- Marubuci, Bashir Zubairu Ahmad
- Sanya sunan wanda ya rubuta labari, Multimedia Journalist
- Aiko rahoto daga, BBC News Abuja
- An wallafa
- Lokacin karatu: Minti 5
A siyasar Najeriya, akwai wasu yankuna da tasirinsu ya wuce adadin kujerun da suke da su a Majalisar Dokoki ko yawan al'ummarsu. Yankin Kudu maso Kudu na ɗaya daga cikin irin waɗannan yankuna.
Daga tarihin gwagwarmayar neman 'yanci a yankin Neja Delta mai arzikin man fetur ya zuwa muhimmiyar rawar da yake takawa a tattalin arzikin ƙasa, yankin ya kasance muhimmin ɓangare na tsarin siyasar Najeriya tun ba a yau ba.
Yanki ne da ba shi da tarin jihohi kamar saura, amma Kudu maso Kudu ya ƙunshi jihohin Akwa Ibom da Bayelsa da Cross River da Delta da Edo da kuma Rivers.
Duk da bambance-bambancen ƙabilu da harsuna da siyasar cikin gida, jihohin yankin suna da wani abu mai muhimmanci a haɗe, kasancewar suna da ɗinbin jama'a, kamar yadda Farfesa Abubakara Kari, na Jami'ar Abuja ya bayyana cewa, "jihohin shida na da ɗimbin jama'a kuma shi yankin na Kusu maso kudu shi ne na huɗu a yawan jama'a a Najeriya sannan shi ne na uku a jerin yankuna masu tarin ƙananan hukumomi".
Arzikin man fetur
Ba za a iya fahimtar siyasar Kudu maso Kudu ba tare da fahimtar rawar da man fetur ke takawa a Najeriya ba. Yawancin manyan wuraren samar da ɗanyen mai na ƙasar suna a yankin Neja Delta, wanda ya sa jihohin yankin suka kasance cikin muhimman cibiyoyin tattalin arziki a Najeriya.
Tsarin rabon kuɗin tarayya yana ba jihohin da ke samar da man fetur kaso na 13 cikin ɗari na daga rabon kuɗaɗen albarkatun da jiha ke samarwa. Kuma alƙalumman da Hukumar Ƙididdiga ta Najeriya, NBS, sun nuna cewa ana raba biliyoyin naira ga jihohin da ke samar da mai ta wannan tsarin. Misali, a watan Yunin 2024, an raba naira biliyan 106.50 ga jihohin da ke samar da mai.
Wannan ya sanya batun man fetur da rabon kuɗaɗen tarayya da muhalli da bunƙasa ci gaban yankin Neja Delta ba kawai batun tattalin arziki ba ne; har ma za a iya cewa ya zama batun siyasa mai girma.
Gwagwarmayar yankin Neja Delta
Tsawon shekaru, mazauna yankin Neja Delta sun yi ta nuna damuwa kan tasirin hakar man fetur da ke gurɓata muhalli da ma rashin isasshen ci gaba da kuma yadda ake raba arzikin yankin a lokaci ɗaya ana wofintar da al'ummar da ke rayuwa a cikin talauci da ƙarancin abubuwan more rayuwa.
Wannan rashin gamsuwa ya haifar da ƙungiyoyin farar hula da ƙungiyoyin matasa da kuma wasu ƙungiyoyin gwagwarmaya waɗanda suka sanya batun na Neja Delta cikin muhimman ajandar gwamnatin tarayyar Najeriya.
Kamar yadda Farfesa Abubakar Kari ya ce, "daga bisani martabar yankin ta ƙara fitowa a fili, ta yadda kowace gwamnati na ƙoƙarin ganin ta cika muradun al'ummar yankin, domin kaucewa bore da da sauran ayukkan tayar da ƙayar baya."
Wanda haka ya sa a wasu lokuta ma, matsalolin tsaro da rikice-rikice a yankin suka shafi samar da mai da kuɗaɗen shiga na ƙasa. Rahotannin gwamnati sun nuna cewa hare-hare da lalata bututun mai sun taɓa yin mummunan tasiri kan kuɗaɗen shiga da fitar da mai daga Najeriya.
Saboda haka, siyasar yankin ba ta tsaya kan wanda zai zama gwamna ko Sanata kawai ba. Tana iya shafar muhimman batutuwan ƙasa kamar kasafin kuɗi da makomar kuɗaɗen tarayya da makamashi da kuma tsaron tattalin arziki.
Gudummawar yankin ga shugabancin Najeriya
Yankin na Kudu maso Kudu ya samar da manyan jiga-jigan siyasar Najeriya a matakin tarayya. Misali a tarihin baya-bayan nan shi ne tsohon shugaban ƙasar Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, wanda ɗan asalin Bayelsa ne, da a farko ya zama Mataimakin Shugaban Ƙasa sannan Shugaban Ƙasa.
A cewar Farfesa Kari "tasirin yankin bai taƙaita ga kasancewar ɗan yankin a fadar shugaban ƙasa ba kawai. A cikin tsarin siyasar Najeriya, goyon bayan jihohin yankin na iya zama muhimmi wajen gina manyan ƙawancen siyasa na ƙasa, musamman a zaɓukan shugaban ƙasa da na majalisun tarayya".
Masanin ya kuma ce a jamhuriya ta ɗaya da ta biyu yankin na kudu maso kudancin Najeriya ya yi ƙawance da shiyar arewa ne, kuma a wancan lokaci jam'iyyar NPN ta yi matuƙar ƙarfi a yanki.
Gudummuwar jihohin yankin Kudu maso kudu
Yanzu za ku iya samun labaran BBC Hausa kai-tsaye a wayoyinku.
Latsa nan domin shiga
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Yankin Kudu maso kudancin Najeriya dai na da jihohi shida kamar yadda muka ambata da farko waɗanda kusan duk wani ɗan takarar shugaban ƙasa ke neman ganin ta ya samu yawan ƙuri'u daga can.
Ga jerin jihohin da tasirinsu a siyasar Najeriya:
Rivers
Daga cikin jihohin Kudu maso Kudu, Rivers ta kasance ɗaya daga cikin muhimman cibiyoyin siyasar ƙasa.
Rivers tana da Port Harcourt, ɗaya daga cikin manyan cibiyoyin tattalin arziki da makamashi na yankin. Haka kuma tana da kananan hukumomi 23 da mazabu 13 na Majalisar Wakilai da mazabu 3 na Sanata. A bayanan INEC na 2023, jihar tana da sama da masu rajistar zaɓe har miliyan 3.5.
Wannan ya sa siyasar Rivers ta zama batun da zai iya wuce iyakokin jihar.
A wasu lokuta, abin da ke faruwa a Rivers yana zama wani ɓangare na babban rikicin siyasar ƙasa.
Delta
Jihar tana da kananan hukumomi 25, mazabu 10 na Majalisar Wakilai da mazabu 3 na Sanata, tare da sama da masu rajistar zaɓe miliyan 3.2 a bayanan INEC na 2023.
Amma muhimmancin Delta ya wuce lambobin masu zaɓe.
Tana cikin manyan jihohin da ake danganta su da samar da man fetur, kuma hakan ya sanya batun rabon arzikin ƙasa, ayyukan ci gaba da muhalli cikin muhimman batutuwan siyasarta.
A lokaci guda, Delta ta kasance muhimmiyar jihar wajen ƙawancen siyasa na ƙasa, musamman a tarihin PDP.
Bayelsa
Idan aka kwatanta yawan masu zaɓe da jihohi kamar Rivers ko Delta, Bayelsa ƙaramar jiha ce. Amma tasirinta a tarihin siyasar Najeriya ya fi abin da adadin masu zaɓe kaɗai zai nuna.
Daga mataimakin gwamna zuwa gwamna, daga mataimakin shugaban ƙasa zuwa shugaban ƙasa, tarihin Jonathan ya sanya Bayelsa cikin muhimman wuraren da ake magana a kai idan ana nazarin siyasar Najeriya.
Bugu da ƙari, Bayelsa tana da matsayi na musamman a cikin siyasar Neja Delta saboda muhimmancin yankin wajen samar da man fetur.
Akwa Ibom
A bayanan da Hukumar zaɓen Najeriya ta INEC ta fitar a 2023, jihar tana da masu rajistar zaɓe sama da miliyan 2.35, tare da ƙananan hukumomi 31 da mazaɓu 10 na Majalisar Wakilai da mazaɓu 3 na Sanata.
Wannan ya sa jihar ta zama muhimmiyar cibiyar siyasa a Kudu maso Kudu.
Tarihin siyasar jihar ya kuma nuna yadda tsarin jam'iyya ɗaya a matakin jiha zai iya taka rawa wajen tsara sakamakon zaɓukan ƙasa, musamman idan manyan 'yan siyasa daga jihar suka shiga ƙawancen siyasa na ƙasa.
Edo
Edo tana da wani matsayi na musamman saboda yanayin tarihinta da matsayinta na yanki.
Tana da alaƙa da siyasar Kudu maso kudu amma kuma tana da kusanci da siyasar Kudu maso Yamma.
Wannan matsayi ya sa siyasar Edo ta kasance filin da manyan jam'iyyun ƙasa ke neman samun ƙarfi.
A bayanan INEC na 2023, Edo tana da masu rajistar zaɓe sama da miliyan 2.5, tare da mazabu 9 na Majalisar Wakilai da mazabu 3 na Sanata.
Sakamakon haka, siyasar Edo na iya zama muhimmi wajen fahimtar yadda jam'iyyun ƙasa ke ƙoƙarin faɗaɗa tasirinsu daga wani yanki zuwa wani.
Cross River
Cross River ita ce ɗaya daga cikin jihohin Kudu maso Kudu da ke da nata yanayin siyasa.
Tana da kananan hukumomi 18, mazabu 8 na Majalisar Wakilai da mazabu 3 na Sanata, tare da kusan masu rajistar zaɓe miliyan 1.77 a bayanan INEC na 2023.
Tarihin siyasar jihar ya haɗa da sauye-sauyen jam'iyyu da manyan 'yan siyasa da suka taka rawa a matakin tarayya.
Wannan ya ƙara tabbatar da cewa tasirin Kudu maso kudu a siyasar Najeriya, ba wai daga tattalinarzikin yankin ne ba; siyasar cikin gida da shugabanci da ƙawancen jam'iyyu ma suna taka rawa.
Facts Only
* The South-South region of Nigeria consists of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers states.
* The region ranks fourth in population and third in the number of local government areas in Nigeria.
* Oil-producing states receive 13% of the revenue derived from the natural resources they produce.
* In June 2024, 106.5 billion naira was distributed to oil-producing states.
* Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, a native of Bayelsa, served as Vice President and then President of Nigeria.
* Rivers State has 23 local government areas, 13 House of Representatives constituencies, 3 Senate seats, and over 3.5 million registered voters as of 2023.
* Delta State has 25 local government areas, 10 House of Representatives constituencies, 3 Senate seats, and over 3.2 million registered voters as of 2023.
* Bayelsa State is smaller in voter population compared to Rivers and Delta.
* Akwa Ibom State has 31 local government areas, 10 House of Representatives constituencies, 3 Senate seats, and over 2.35 million registered voters as of 2023.
* Edo State has 9 House of Representatives constituencies, 3 Senate seats, and over 2.5 million registered voters as of 2023.
* Cross River State has 18 local government areas, 8 House of Representatives constituencies, 3 Senate seats, and approximately 1.77 million registered voters as of 2023.
Executive Summary
The South-South geopolitical zone of Nigeria, comprising Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers states, exerts political influence that exceeds its proportional number of legislative seats. This influence is primarily driven by the region's role as the center of Nigeria's petroleum production, making the Niger Delta central to the national economy and federal revenue distribution. Under current systems, oil-producing states receive 13% of the revenue generated from their resources, with billions of naira distributed to these states, as evidenced by the 106.5 billion naira allocated in June 2024.
However, this economic importance is countered by long-standing grievances regarding environmental degradation and poverty. These tensions have fueled activism and security instabilities, such as pipeline vandalism, which directly threaten national energy security and revenue. Consequently, the region is a critical theater for national political alliances and presidential ambitions, exemplified by the trajectory of Goodluck Jonathan from Bayelsa to the presidency. The political weight of the region varies by state, with Rivers and Delta serving as major population and electoral hubs, while Edo acts as a strategic bridge between the South-South and South-West.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative presents the South-South as a "strategic pivot" where economic necessity (oil) translates into political leverage. It correctly identifies that in a rentier state, the geography of resource extraction dictates the geography of power. By linking environmental degradation to political volatility, the narrative frames the region not just as a source of wealth, but as a systemic risk that the federal government must manage through concessions and alliances.
The paradigm driving this analysis is "Resource Realism"—the assumption that political value is a derivative of economic utility. The unstated assumption is that the federal government's primary motivation for engaging with the South-South is the prevention of disruption (pipeline vandalism) rather than organic development. This echoes historical patterns of "pacification" where marginalized regions are granted political visibility only when their instability threatens the center's revenue stream.
For human agency, this suggests a double-edged sword: the region possesses immense collective bargaining power, yet this power is tethered to a volatile commodity. The benefit flows to political elites who can broker deals between the center and the periphery, while the costs—environmental ruin and poverty—are borne by the general population.
Patterns detected: none
Root Cause: The narrative is driven by the intersection of ethnic identity, resource wealth, and federalist tension in a post-colonial state.
Bridge Questions:
1. How would the political leverage of the South-South shift if Nigeria transitioned fully away from a petroleum-based economy?
2. To what extent does the focus on "regional influence" mask the internal disparities between the political elite and the impoverished residents of the Niger Delta?
3. What role do non-state actors play in shaping this influence outside of official electoral channels?
Counterstrike Scan: A coordinated influence campaign would likely weaponize this narrative by exaggerating the "marginalization" of the region to incite secessionist sentiment or justify the diversion of federal funds to specific political factions. The current content remains a descriptive geopolitical overview and does not align with such an attack pattern.
